Last month the Land Registry reported that six out of ten house values increased in the UK. This is on top of the Nationwide's own monthly report that house prices are rising for the second month running.

This is, however, a short-term blip in the residential housing market. We feel it is simply the "spring" effect pushing up prices temporarily. There is always a group of people that must, or need to move house, such as those going through divorce, those who are being moved by their job, or those who have inherited a house and need to sell it to disburse probate. If these events happen in the autumn, people will typically hold the sale over until the spring, when all homes look more attractive, and when people generally are in a better mood. Hence, we believe that the recent increase is due to this, and does not herald a return to house price inflation. This is some time off, and we will probably not see a return to increasing house prices until mid 2010, but more than likely not until spring 2011.